Financial Trend Forecaster Blog

Investing For The Rest Of Us: What Exactly Is a Double Dip Recession and What Are The Odds Of Having One?

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geitner thinks that the United States will not experience one, President Obama warned way back in November of 2009 that we could head into one, and some economic pundits believe we’re already in one.  Everyone seems to have their opinion as to whether our fragile economy will experience a “double dip” recession or not. 

Opinions are good. They form the basis for most discussions taking place today – from economics, to politics, and beyond.  For those of us who make our livelihood giving financial advice, a well formulated opinion may well determine whether we can pay our mortgages or not.

First, let’s define a double-dip recession.  In simple terms – and according to the website Investopedia, a double dip recession occurs when gross domestic product (GDP) growth slides back to negative after a quarter or two of positive growth. A double-dip recession refers to a recession followed by a short-lived recovery, followed by another recession. Got all that? Read the rest of this entry »

$1.3 Trillion; Safe estimates peg it as the amount of currency that’s traded on the Forex every single day.

Trading on the Forex is one of the fastest growing income generating opportunities in the world. All it takes to start is a small investment (many dealers will start you off with as little as $250), and some knowledge of the world markets and of trading. Oh. And, according to those that do it every day and live off changing dollars to pounds to francs and back, some common sense, some practicality and a lot of faith are a big help.

Some background:

1. The market began in the 1970s with the introduction of free exchange rates and floating currencies. It’s the open market where the world’s currencies are exchanged and traded with few regulations. Because of the open nature of the market nearly anyone can trade and make money. The volume of trading and the enormous number of players make it almost impossible for any one trader to manipulate the market. Read the rest of this entry »

Fx trading isn’t rocket science, but it is still quite complicated. This is why managed forex accounts have been introduced. The dilemma that investors face now is of choosing the best managed Forex account out of the many available. Read the rest of this entry »

By: Elliott Wave International

The media tells you, falling interest rates are good for stocks and rising rates are bad for stocks. But studies show that stock prices don’t follow the rules… What about market “fundamentals”, news items, market sentiment? What really drives stock prices?. . . More 

Have you ever heard of the Turtle Traders? Maybe not. If not, then read this article to know the amazing story of how novices known as Turtle Traders became millionaires in a matter of a few years trading commodity futures. The story starts in 1983 ! Discover Forex Mastery2.0 and the M3 Forex Navigator System. Watch the video that shows how M3 Forex Navigator was able to predict the recent DOW crumble days before it happened. This is your chance to learn Forex trading even if you had tried before and failed!

Richard Dennis one of the great commodity trader who had started with $300 as a small time trader eventually ended up making $150M. He always believed that trading was something that anyone could learn and become a great trader . The story of the Turtle Traders starts when Richard had an argument with his trading partner and close friend Bill Eckhart. Bill had always believed that great traders were only born while Richard had always believed that great traders could be made, the famous nurture versus nature story . Download the Turtle TradingRules! Read the story of Richard Samuels, a post office mailman with a head injury and how he made a fortune with these Neutrino Forex Signals! Read the rest of this entry »

By Elliott Wave International

Moving averages are one of the most widely followed indicator in technical analysis.

Simply put, when the price of an index or stock stays above a particular price moving average line on a chart, that price level serves as support — a level where buyers reside.

If the price falls below a moving average line and “can’t” break through from the underside, this price level is a line of resistance — a price level where sellers hover.

That’s an easy explanation of moving averages for you.

Read the rest of this entry »

A look at history shows that when markets go haywire people do some strange things to try to cope.  The mass psychology of an entire country is intricately connected with the state of the markets. We saw a small sample of this in the panic that accompanied the market melt down of 2008. People were willing to put up with any sort of government boondoggle in exchange for a glimmer of hope that it might help. Robert Prechter has studied this interconnection and even coined a term for the phenomenon he calls “Socionomics”.

Let’s take a look at what could happen if Prechter is right and we see some major market pain from here. ~Tim McMahon, editor

Big Bear Markets: More Than Falling Stock Prices 
Many infamous authoritarian regimes emerged during or after big bear markets

By Elliott Wave International

Fear and uncertainty that drive a severe bear market are the same emotions which can set the stage for authoritarianism, in most any nation. 

“Bear markets of sufficient size appear to bring about a desire to slaughter groups of successful people. In 1793-1794, radical Frenchmen guillotined countless members of high society. In the 1930s, Stalin slaughtered Ukrainians. In the 1940s, Nazis slaughtered Jews. In the 1970s, Communists in Cambodia and China slaughtered the affluent. In 1998, after their country’s financial collapse, Indonesians went on a rampage and slaughtered Chinese merchants.” - Bob Prechter, Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, p. 270

Why do authoritarian tendencies emerge only during bear markets in stocks? Read the rest of this entry »

In a severe sell-off, 99 percent of ALL stocks can fall.

By Elliott Wave International

Approximately three out of four stocks go down in a bear market. This ratio doesn’t just apply to high beta names; historically, 75 percent of all stocks go down when the general market falls.

Considering we could be headed into a severe bear market (read Bob Prechter’s latest special two-issue Elliott Wave Theorist, if you haven’t yet), we could see more than 75 percent of stocks take a dive. In that case, even a basket of “defensive” or “quality” names isn’t likely to help your portfolio. What good are dividends when you’re losing far, far more through capital depreciation?  Read the rest of this entry »

The date was March of 2009, the mood was decidedly bearish, Robert Prechter seemed like the lone Bull calling for a rally from that point.  And that is precisely what we got. 

In April 2010 the mood had changed, the media was Bullish but Bob turned Bearish. In his issue of his Elliott Wave Theorist he says conditions have changed and he is once again sounding prophetic.  This is extremely important, the media would have you believe that this is an ordinary 10% correction.  Prechter says it is imperative that you act now to protect yourself. 

Because of the critical importance of this prediction, for a limited time, you can also  visit Elliott Wave International to download the full 10-page April issue, free.

The following article is courtesy of Elliott Wave International.  Tim McMahon, Editor

Bigger Than A “10% Correction”?
Every Big Bear Grew From a Cub

The famous “10% correction” that market pundits talk about sounds so nice and tidy, so predictable and tolerable. It’s as if this “cute little correction” came neatly wrapped, looked like an M&M candy character, and smiled at you and your family after you open the box.

Back in March of 2009 at the peak of bearishness when almost everyone else was predicting the end of the world (or at least the end of the stock market) Robert Prechter took an extremely contrarian position and called for a rally from that point.  And that is precisely what we got.  Looking back that call seems almost prophetic. He called that bottom based on eight indicators which he said lined up on the bullish side.

Now In the April 2010 issue of his Elliott Wave Theorist he said these eight have now switched to bearish. Not one to mince words, he specifically predicted that the peak was due to roll-over between April 15 and May 7th. Considering the events on May 6th and 7th he is once again sounding prophetic.  This is extremely important, the media would have you believe that the events of May 6th were the result of a typo.  Prechter says it is imperative that you act now to protect yourself. 

Because of the critical importance of this prediction, for those of you who don’t subscribe to EWT we are providing an excerpt from the April issue.  And For a limited time, you can also visit Elliott Wave International to download the full 10-page April issue, free.

The following article is excerpted from Robert Prechter’s April 2010 issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist.  Tim McMahon, Editor

What Do These 8 Technical Indicators Mean For The Markets?

May 7, 2010

By Robert Prechter, CMT

Technical Indicators

It is rare to have technical indicators all lined up on one side of the ledger. They were lined up this way—on the bullish side—in late February-early March of 2009. Today they are just as aligned but on the bearish side. Read the rest of this entry »